Top 10 Predictions for the Future of AI in 2024
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A revolution has occurred in Hollywood, and the presidential election has been marred by scandal, all amidst the relentless advancement of AI. Do you believe it?
The annual State of AI Report, a key resource on the state and future prospects of AI, has been released. A generative AI revolution took place this year, catapulting technological advancement into the mysterious world of the singularity.
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Today, historic events happen at unbelievable speeds, defying easy prediction and reshaping our ideas of how people and societies will live, work, learn, and have fun in the future. The State of AI Report continues to be steadfast in its commitment to in-depth analysis and precise vision, despite this singularity.
Leading industry analysts, consultants, and professionals will be forced to reevaluate and revise their reports after reading this most recent edition for the sixth consecutive year.
10 Realistic AI Predictions for the Forthcoming 2024 Year
- Generative AI is used in a Hollywood-caliber production for visual effects.
- The misuse of generative AI during the 2024 US election cycle is being looked into by a media company.
- In a challenging environment (such as a AAA game, tool use, or science), self-improving AI agents outperform SOTA.
- We witness at least one significant listing for an AI-focused company (such as Databricks) as the tech IPO markets thaw.
- A FAANG spends more than $1 billion to train a single large-scale model in the GenAI scaling craze.
- The Microsoft/OpenAI deal is being looked into on grounds of competition by the US FTC or the UK CMA.
- Beyond high-level voluntary commitments, we see little progress in global AI governance.
- To replace VC equity funds for compute funding, financial institutions introduce GPU debt funds.
- The Billboard Hot 100 or the Spotify Top Hits 2024 are both reached by an AI-generated song.
- An inference-focused AI chip company is acquired by a large AI company (like OpenAI) as inference workloads and costs rise significantly.
The 160-slide report comprehensively covers AI advancements across research, industry, regulation, and safety, focusing on key developments from the past year. Its true value, however, lies in the authors’ predictions of the year ahead in AI, supported by analysis of past predictions, their successes and failures, and insights into the future.
The report, a treasure trove of data presented through numerous graphs, charts, and visuals, is available in its entirety for your perusal.
Yesterday is History, Tomorrow is a Mystery
In 2022, predictions were made for 2023, with two main warnings from science fiction writers and futurologists materializing. The first, about the creation of artificial superintelligence (AGI) potentially replacing humans as the primary carriers of intelligence, remains uncertain. However, the second warning, concerning the divergent paths of AI development in the USA and China leading to distinct dystopian outcomes, is now a practical reality gaining more confirmation.
This significant conclusion emerges from the latest State of AI Report 2022, the foremost annual report in its fifth year, noted for its analytical depth and visionary precision. Produced by AI startup investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth, this report is a vital resource for various readers, including analysts, business leaders, politicians, researchers, and AI enthusiasts.
Past editions of the report have prompted many top analysts to revisit and revise their assessments. The report, spanning 114 slides, comprehensively reviews AI’s progress across research, industry, regulation, and safety in the past year, but its real value lies in the authors’ predictions of upcoming AI events, accompanied by an analysis of past predictions and their timelines. While four out of eight predictions from the previous year came true, the report underscores that this doesn’t resemble a chance encounter with a dinosaur.
The report doesn’t need summarizing; it offers a broad array of valuable insights for diverse audiences. The key takeaway, encapsulated in the title of this post, is that two distinct AI dystopias are emerging worldwide: “Big Brother AI” and “Big Stupid.”
Top 9 AI Predictions for 2023 That Were Made in 2022
- DeepMind trains a multimodal RL model with 10B parameters, which is an order of magnitude larger than Gato.
- NVIDIA announces a strategic partnership with an organisation focused on AGI.
- A SOTA LM is trained on ten times the number of data points as Chinchilla, demonstrating data-set scaling vs. parameter scaling.
- By September 2023, generative audio tools will have attracted over 100,000 developers.
- GAFAM invests more than $1 billion in an AGI or open source AI company (e.g., OpenAI).
- In the face of NVIDIA’s dominance, reality bites semiconductor startups, and a high-profile start-up is shut down or acquired for 50% of its most recent valuation.
- An elected UK, US, or EU politician backs a proposal to regulate AGI Labs similarly to Biosafety Labs.
- Over $100 million will be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations over the next year as more people become aware of the dangers of allowing AI capabilities to run ahead of safety.
- A major user-generated content site (such as Reddit) negotiates a commercial agreement with a start-up that creates AI models (such as OpenAI) for training on their corpus of user-generated content.
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