Bitfinex: Bitcoin Retreat Below $100K Reflects Mid-Cycle Consolidation Rather Than Cascading Sell-Off
In Brief
Bitfinex reports that Bitcoin’s recent drop reflects a mid-cycle consolidation rather than a cascading sell-off, with the market expected to remain range-bound.
Bitfinex has published its latest cryptocurrency market report. Bitcoin fell as much as 21.46% from its October all-time high last week, briefly dropping below the key psychological level of $100,000 to a low of $99,045.
According to the analysis, this decline is more indicative of a consolidation phase than a cascading sell-off.
Bitfinex pointed out that historical market trends and on-chain data suggest that the current price movement resembles previous mid-cycle corrections, during which structural investors stabilize their positions and capital rotates within the ecosystem before broader uptrends resume.
Bitcoin’s inability to maintain levels above the short-term holders’ (STH) cost basis of $112,500 has contributed to a controlled decline, confirming a retest of deeper structural support levels.
At present, roughly 72% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, which is near the lower bound of the 70–90% equilibrium band typical of mid-cycle slowdowns, analysts noted. This implies that while selling pressure continues, much of the speculative excess has already been removed.
The $88,500 Active Investors’ Realised Price is now viewed as the next significant downside reference, aligning with prior cycle support zones where capitulation historically transitions into re-accumulation.
Short-term relief rallies toward the STH cost basis are still possible, but sustained recovery will depend on renewed demand from both institutional and retail participants.
Until such inflows materialize, Bitfinex notes, the market is expected to remain range-bound as volatility compresses and structural positions reset in preparation for the next major cycle movement.
US Economic Slowdown Contrasts With Crypto Sector Growth As Stablecoins Reach $2.82T Amid Global Regulatory Advances
The report also highlighted mixed signals from the US economy. Corporate borrowing is rebounding, yet hiring is slowing. Private-sector data indicate that the US labor market is weakening faster than anticipated, with the ADP National Employment Report for October showing only 42,000 new jobs, nearly all from large firms, while small and medium-sized businesses have shed workers for a third consecutive month. Consumer confidence has dropped six percent in November, suggesting households are beginning to feel the impact of slower hiring and policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector continues to advance toward mainstream adoption, driven by record growth in stablecoins and increasing regulatory engagement. Ethereum-based stablecoins reached a monthly volume record of $2.82 trillion in October 2025, up 45% from September, as investors shifted into dollar-pegged tokens during market pullbacks and Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem enabled faster and cheaper transactions. This milestone reinforces Ethereum’s role as a core infrastructure for digital finance, supporting remittances, decentralised finance (DeFi), and institutional settlements.
Regulatory efforts to integrate blockchain into traditional finance are also accelerating globally. In Japan, the Financial Services Agency approved a stablecoin pilot involving megabanks Mizuho, MUFG, and SMBC, set to begin in November 2025, testing regulated digital payments under new financial regulations. In Australia, ASIC Chair Joe Longo encouraged the adoption of tokenisation to modernize the country’s markets, announcing a relaunch of the ASIC Innovation Hub and updated licensing frameworks for stablecoins and tokenized securities.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
