QCP Capital: Bitcoin Faces Range-Bound Outlook As Spot Recovery Gains Momentum Amid Legacy Selling Pressure
In Brief
Bitcoin rebounded above $106,000 amid optimism over the US government funding progress, though medium-term price action is expected to remain range-bound.
Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Capital released a recent market report noting that the US Senate voted to advance a funding agreement, a key step toward reopening the government as the shutdown reaches its 40th day.
The amended package now moves to the House of Representatives before being sent to the President for signature, a process that could take several more days. Equity futures responded positively, reflecting optimism that this could mark the conclusion of the longest government shutdown in US history.
Bitcoin rebounded alongside broader risk assets, reclaiming $106,000 after multiple attempts to break below $100,000 in the previous week. This recovery comes despite ongoing selling from early Bitcoin holders and continued outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Risk Reversals have also shown a slight shift away from put-heavy positioning, indicating easing concerns over potential large-scale liquidations.
According to QCP, options activity has remained mixed, with notable buying of BTC-26DEC25 112k/120k/150k Call Fly contracts alongside significant selling of BTC-26DEC25 135k/140k Call Spreads. These flows suggest divided market expectations regarding whether Bitcoin can retest its all-time highs before year-end, amid modest momentum and persistent pressure from legacy supply.
The current pattern of selling from long-term holders mirrors historical supply overhangs, such as those from the Silk Road and Mt. Gox, though past cycles show that deeper liquidity and more diverse participants have helped absorb such shocks. This indicates that while distributions from early wallets are disruptive, they are unlikely to alter Bitcoin’s overall structural trajectory.
Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have remained relatively quiet but continue to influence market sentiment, as any indications of selling from large holders could still weigh on prices. Encouragingly, Bitcoin’s rejection of the $100,000 level has provided DATs with an opportunity to rebuild positions.
A sustained recovery in spot markets, supported by favorable macro conditions and stabilizing ETF inflows, could reignite demand, though rallies above $118,000 may encounter renewed selling pressure from early holders. Overall, until long-term supply eases, the medium-term outlook suggests a range-bound Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Lead Market Recovery
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,383, reflecting a 4.67% increase over the past 24 hours, with intraday lows of $101,573 and highs of $106,432.
Meanwhile, ETH is trading at $3,623, up 6.75% in the same period, reaching a low of $3,384 and a high of $3,648, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.59 trillion, marking a 4.93% rise over the last 24 hours, while overall trading volume has increased by 36.14% to $169.38 billion.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
