10x Research Forecasts 90% Probability Of Ethereum Spot ETFs Approval
In Brief
The analysts at 10x Research predict that there is a probability of over 90% for the US SEC to approve spot Ethereum ETFs.
Organization specializing in digital asset research for wealth managers and cryptocurrency service providers, 10x Research shared a post on the social media platform X, disclosing its latest analysis indicating a probability of over 90% that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As reported by 10x Research, the discount rate for the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), the issuer of the spot Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) and a cryptocurrency asset manager, has decreased from 30% a week ago to 8%. With ETHE’s discount rate now at 8%, it suggests a probability of spot Ethereum ETF approval of at least 90%.
This suggests that if the ETHE, with $11 billion in assets under management, transitions to an ETF, there’s a strong chance of fund outflows as investors capitalize on profits. The company emphasized the key query of when these ETFs would commence trading if approved.
10x Research highlighted that if the “cryptocurrency investment” cautionary statement from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler comes up today on X, it may be interpreted as a potential signal for the approval of the ETH spot ETF. This inference is drawn from previous instances where the SEC issued warning signals prior to approving ETF listings linked to cryptocurrency futures.
The SEC is scheduled to make a decision by May 23rd regarding the approval of the launch of the spot Ethereum ETF applied for by the investment management firm VanEck. Additionally, the decision on the Ark Invest/21Shares application is slated for May 24th.
QCP Capital Cautions On Ethereum Price Swings Ahead Of SEC Decision
Anticipation surrounding the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF is increasing, particularly in light of indications of a possible change in the SEC’s position. Earlier this week, the regulator requested exchanges to update their 19b-4 filings, which proposed rule changes, indicating potential progress toward the approval.
Subsequently, asset management companies, encompassing Ark Invest, Fidelity, and Grayscale, have been modifying their S-1 registration statements to eliminate the staking component. This adjustment reflects the SEC’s concerns regarding the risks associated with staking cryptocurrencies.
Recently, cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital issued a warning regarding potential price fluctuations in ETH leading up to the SEC’s upcoming decision deadline. Previously, the company highlighted the possibility of ETH prices surpassing those of BTC in the event of approval. Furthermore, the prevailing lack of market enthusiasm implies that an unexpected approval of the spot Ethereum ETFs could catch investors off guard, potentially triggering a short squeeze and facilitating a rapid return to recent market highs, the company noted.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
