Crypto Markets Surge as Trump Survives Assassination Attempt: How a Political Shock Sent Bitcoin Soaring and Reshaped Election Odds
In Brief
An assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, sparked significant price gains for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, affecting the next U.S. presidential election.
Surprisingly, on July 12, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was the target of an assassination attempt. Financial markets responded quickly as word of the occurrence spread, leading to notable price gains for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the days that followed.
Here, we’ll explore the circumstances surrounding the attempted murder, the ensuing changes in the markets, and the possible ramifications for the next U.S. presidential election, as well as the regulation of cryptocurrencies.
Source: CoinGecko
The Assassination Attempt and the Market Reaction
At 6:11 p.m. local time on July 12, gunfire was heard at a Trump campaign event located in Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was soon encircled by Secret Service operatives who hurried him off stage. Trump appeared defiant after the assault despite the hectic situation, with blood evident on the side of his head and ear. Pictures showing Trump’s unwavering attitude in the face of peril rapidly went viral on the internet and in news articles.
It was said that the suspected gunman and at least one guest had died as a result of the shooting. Leaders of the two main U.S. political parties, as well as foreign allies, expressed outrage at the attempt on Trump’s life and relief that he survived, sending shockwaves through the political landscape.
Financial markets saw notable changes in the hours and days that followed the attempted murder, especially in the sphere of cryptocurrencies. The price of Bitcoin, which is the biggest cryptocurrency in the world based on market value, surged significantly. Three days after the event, on July 15, Bitcoin had increased to $64,671, a 14.2% weekly increase and 5.8% increase over the previous day. The price hovered at $63,664 and briefly approached $65,000.
Source: CoinGecko
The trend was followed by other cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum and other prominent altcoins experiencing huge price rises. Digital assets were not the only thing that saw a spike in price; shares of firms that deal with cryptocurrencies, such as Coinbase and Marathon Digital, also saw rises.
It’s interesting to note that following the murder attempt, activity occurred in more sectors than only the crypto market. Smith & Wesson Brands and other gun and ammo makers enjoyed rises in their stock prices. Furthermore, the stock price of Trump Media and Technology Group, which he owns in the majority, surged by thirty percent.
Examining the Reaction of the Market
Following the attempted assassination of Trump, market watchers and cryptocurrency experts have provided a variety of theories for the spike in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. There is a widely held belief that the event has increased Trump’s prospects of winning the next presidential election, which is good news for the Bitcoin market.
According to Austin Campbell, attempts at assassinations have traditionally resulted in an increase in support for political candidates. Trump’s image and electoral prospects may have been further enhanced by his ability to show strength in the early wake of the incident.
In contrast to his Democratic opponent, incumbent President Joe Biden, Trump is generally seen as being more pro-Bitcoin and pro-crypto, as noted by Campbell and other observers. As the first major U.S. political party to do so, Trump has declared himself the “crypto president” and has begun taking bitcoin donations for his campaign. To further solidify his ties to the Bitcoin world, he has been invited to speak at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville later this month.
Much of the market excitement seems to be driven by the belief that a Trump victory would result in a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. According to David Tawil, co-founder and president of ProChain Capital, a Trump victory may result in a “full recasting of crypto” in the US, possibly overturning some of the more dubious positions that present legislators and regulators have adopted.
Prediction Markets and Betting Odds
It is not only conjecture as to how the assassination attempt might affect Trump’s chances of winning the presidency. The likelihood of a Trump win has changed dramatically according to cryptocurrency-based prediction markets and betting sites. Contracts for a Trump election win on the well-known political betting website PredictIt traded at $0.70 on July 16, up from $0.60 on July 12, the day of the murder. Contracts for Biden, meanwhile, were only selling at $0.26.
Similarly, after the event, Trump’s odds of winning the November election increased by almost ten percentage points to 70% on the Polymarket site, where users may wager cryptocurrencies on a variety of outcomes. These changes in betting odds and prediction markets indicate that a lot of investors and speculators think that Trump’s chances of winning the presidency have risen dramatically as a result of the murder attempt.
Cryptocurrency as a Safe Haven Asset
A lot of the analysis has been on the assassination attempt’s possible political ramifications, but other analysts have pointed out that the event could have once again highlighted Bitcoin’s usefulness as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis. ProChain Capital’s David Tawil thinks that one of the reasons why Bitcoin’s price has recently surged isn’t because it is a safe-haven asset.
From this angle, there are similarities to other occurrences in which Bitcoin has proven resilient or even had a rally during unstable political or economic times. For instance, there was a great deal of volatility in the world’s financial markets when Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023, making it the second-biggest bank failure in American history. In contrast to some predictions, Bitcoin did, however, rise throughout this time.
The response to the attempted assassination and its effect on the cryptocurrency markets has not been confined to the US. From Hong Kong, Justin d’Anethan, head of business development for the Asia-Pacific area at cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock, noted that there seems to be a clear correlation between the increase in Bitcoin’s price and the abortive attempt on Trump’s life.
Following the event, D’Anethan observed that Trump’s prospects of winning the presidency again “shot up” in prediction markets. According to him, investors could be planning forward and believing that a Republican win will improve business and market conditions and raise risk assets, such as cryptocurrency.
Potential Implications for Cryptocurrency Regulation
The market’s response raises concerns about the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the US if it is motivated by predictions of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under a hypothetical Trump government.
Many in the cryptocurrency industry believe that a Trump win would result in major shifts in the regulatory establishment’s leadership. Under a new administration, there is conjecture that Hester Pierce, a commissioner at the SEC who is pro-cryptocurrency, may succeed Gary Gensler as the agency’s chair. This leadership transition may lead to a more progressive regulatory approach to blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies.
However, it is important to note that campaign promises and market expectations do not always translate into policy realities. The complexity of cryptocurrency regulation, which involves multiple agencies and legislative bodies, means that any significant changes would likely require more than just executive action.
Criticisms and Counterarguments
The prospect of a more crypto-friendly administration has drawn praise from many in the cryptocurrency industry, but other detractors contend that it is difficult to link the success of Bitcoin and other digital assets to political results. They argue that the architecture of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, was to be apolitical and immune to governmental control.
Moreover, some experts advise against interpreting short-term market fluctuations too literally, pointing out that a variety of variables other than political developments can affect cryptocurrency values, which are known for being extremely volatile.
The upcoming months will be critical for the cryptocurrency business in ascertaining if the present market euphoria is warranted. We’ll be keenly observing Trump’s attendance at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville to see whether he makes any policy pronouncements or clarifies his position on digital currencies.
Whatever the outcome of the election, the larger discussion over cryptocurrency legislation in the US is probably going to go on. Talks among legislators, regulators, and business people will continue to center on topics including investor protection, market integrity, and the place of digital assets in the financial system.
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About The Author
Victoria is a writer on a variety of technology topics including Web3.0, AI and cryptocurrencies. Her extensive experience allows her to write insightful articles for the wider audience.
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Victoria is a writer on a variety of technology topics including Web3.0, AI and cryptocurrencies. Her extensive experience allows her to write insightful articles for the wider audience.
