QCP Capital: Market Participants Hedge Risks, Eyeing Signs Of Easing US Sell-Offs And Potential Bitcoin ETF Inflows
In Brief
QCP Capital reports Bitcoin showing early signs of stabilization as traders hedge both directions and watch US selling pressure alongside ETF inflows.
Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Capital released a market update noting that Bitcoin is beginning to show early signs of stabilization following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials Williams and Miran on Friday. Their comments increased expectations for a potential rate cut in December, with market pricing for such a move rising to roughly 75%, up from the 30–40% range seen just a day earlier.
Analysts observed that broader macro conditions appear to be shifting, and Bitcoin, which generally reacts strongly to liquidity changes, is starting to respond. Even so, after a decline of more than 30% and a series of technical breakdowns in recent weeks, the asset still maintains a bearish technical profile. Derivatives data, however, suggests a more complex backdrop.
Although defensive positioning remains substantial, open interest in call options expiring at the end of the year continues to exceed open interest in puts. The leading year-end Bitcoin strikes by open interest show that traders continue to maintain exposure to upward movement, including the BTC-26DEC25-85k, 140k, 120k, 200k, and 130k contracts, each carrying value.
Bitcoin Market Braces For Volatility As December Options Max Pain Hits 104K
Market participants appear to be preparing for both directions, attempting to limit risk in the event of further declines while still allowing for participation in a potential late-year rebound. This setup is being compared to 2021, when Bitcoin saw a steep downturn before staging a fast recovery.
The Max Pain level for December expiries is currently positioned at 104,000, and QCP notes that this threshold may play a more meaningful role than usual, given record levels of options open interest and a noticeable uptick in volatility.
In the perpetual futures market, conditions are beginning to normalize. Much of the leveraged long exposure has been unwound, and funding rates have shifted into negative territory. Should this persist, the likelihood of another forced sell-off pushing the market further into oversold conditions may diminish.
The coming Thanksgiving week is expected to indicate whether Friday’s rebound can be sustained. Despite the market’s growing interest in identifying a bottom, historically, recoveries formed over weekends have not always held. Analysts will be watching for signs that selling pressure during US trading hours is easing and whether Friday’s inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signal a broader shift after several weeks of substantial outflows.
Key macro events this week include US September PPI and retail sales data on Tuesday, followed by initial jobless claims and core PCE readings on Wednesday.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $86,006, reflecting a 0.13% gain over the previous 24 hours. During this period, the asset reached an intraday high of $87,987 and a low of $85,864.
The total value of the global cryptocurrency market stands at $2.94 trillion, showing no considerable change compared to the previous day. Meanwhile, overall market trading activity has increased, with 24-hour crypto market volume rising to $137.23 billion, representing a 33.82% uptick based on data from CoinMarketCap.
Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, please note that the information provided on this page is not intended to be and should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other form of advice. It is important to only invest what you can afford to lose and to seek independent financial advice if you have any doubts. For further information, we suggest referring to the terms and conditions as well as the help and support pages provided by the issuer or advertiser. MetaversePost is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice.
About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
More articles
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
