QCP Capital: Bitcoin Volatility Declines, While Price Breakout Unlikely Without Clear Market Catalyst
In Brief
QCP Capital reports cautious market sentiment with Bitcoin trading near $105,000 amid low volatility, while rising job openings boost risk appetite ahead of key US payroll data.
Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Capital has released its latest market analysis, observing that an unexpected increase in job openings has supported a rise in risk appetite ahead of the forthcoming US payroll report. This has pushed the S&P 500 closer to the 6,000 level, a psychologically important threshold. According to the firm, a stable non-farm payroll (NFP) figure would further solidify the Federal Reserve’s position regarding the strength of the labor market and reinforce market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged.
From a trading perspective, investor sentiment remains cautious in the lead-up to anticipated discussions between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. In the digital asset market, Bitcoin front-end implied volatilities have declined, with the spot price stabilizing near the $105,000 level. Implied volatility for $1 million contracts has dropped below 40. Meanwhile, in the fixed income space, trading volumes for Chinese 10-year and 30-year government bond futures have reached their lowest point since February, indicating a broader trend of risk aversion and reduced market engagement.
QCP Capital highlighted that Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow range, with current positioning appearing limited and the skew returning to a more balanced state, suggesting an absence of strong directional bias. The volatility curve has flattened from the mid to long-term end since May, reflecting a parallel decline in the VIX index and prompting some investors to pursue long-vega strategies. One notable development includes the purchase of September $130,000 Bitcoin call options at 47 implied volatility, which the firm interprets as a sign of selective interest in potential upside moves heading into the third quarter.
Looking forward, QCP Capital cautions that the third quarter may present increased challenges. Potential tariff effects could begin to influence macroeconomic indicators, and fiscal uncertainties tied to the “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) and the US debt ceiling could contribute to headline-driven market fluctuations. In the absence of a clear market catalyst, the firm does not anticipate considerable deviations in Bitcoin’s current trading range.
BTC Hovers Above $105,000 Mark As Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $378M Inflow
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $105,719, reflecting an increase of approximately 0.39% over the past 24 hours. Within this timeframe, the highest recorded value reached $106,790, while the lowest stood at $105,203. The current market capitalization of Bitcoin is estimated at $2.1 trillion. In parallel, the total global cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen by 0.41% over the last day, now totaling $3.33 trillion.
The total volume of cryptocurrency transactions in the last 24 hours is reported at $105.12 billion, representing a 6.11% decline compared to the previous day, based on data provided by CoinMarketCap.
In addition, SoSoValue data indicates that on June 3rd, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net inflow of $378 million. The total net asset value of these ETFs currently stands at $128.13 billion.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
