Markets News Report Technology
November 05, 2024

QCP Capital: Bitcoin Braces For 3.5% Swing On Election Night 

In Brief

QCP Capital highlights widespread market anxiety across stocks, treasuries, and crypto as the US nears one of the closest presidential elections in history.

QCP Capital: Bitcoin Braces For 3.5% Swing On Election Night 

Singapore-based cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital released a market analysis highlighting widespread market anxiety across stocks, treasuries, and cryptocurrencies as the US approaches one of the closest presidential elections in history.

A trend dubbed the “Trump trade”—involving long positions in the dollar, cryptocurrency, and bets on rising Treasury yields—has gained momentum, driven by Donald Trump’s lead in prediction markets. However, should Kamala Harris secure victory, these gains could reverse abruptly, potentially causing high market volatility overnight.

QCP Capital notes that the cryptocurrency market is currently anticipating a 3.5% movement in Bitcoin spot prices on election night. However, traders might be underestimating the risk beyond November 8th, as the lack of a volatility premium suggests expectations of a swift resolution, potentially overlooking the possibility of delays or a contested outcome.

Historically, unexpected election outcomes have led to strong market reactions. In 2016, Donald Trump’s surprise victory caused US futures to initially plummet before rebounding, resulting in the most active trading days of that half-year. Similarly, in 2020, the race was not officially called for Joe Biden until four days later, driving trading volumes to a six-month peak.

The analysis also emphasizes the potential impact of congressional races. A Republican sweep could signal larger fiscal deficits, possibly leading to a more hawkish Federal Reserve—an unfavorable scenario for risk assets. In contrast, a divided government might result in more stable markets with reduced volatility.

Currently, the options market reflects a balanced sentiment between call and put options, with activity in both topside calls and downside puts. Despite this, Bitcoin continues to be perceived as part of the “Trump trade.” BTC spot prices fell after outflows from spot ETFs on Monday, coinciding with a poll showing Kamala Harris’s slight lead in Iowa. As election results begin to emerge, QCP Capital anticipates erratic swings in BTC spot prices.

Bitcoin Steadies Below $69,000 Amid Fluctuations

As of the current writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,831, reflecting a modest increase of 0.16% over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s intraday range saw a low of $66,896 and a high of $69,158. Bitcoin’s market capitalization currently stands at $1.36 trillion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance has decreased by 0.14%, settling at 59.37%.

On a broader scale, the global cryptocurrency market cap has dipped by 0.11%, now totaling $2.29 trillion. Despite this decline, overall market volume has surged by 11.95%, reaching $84.37 billion, based on data from CoinMarketCap. 

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, please note that the information provided on this page is not intended to be and should not be interpreted as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other form of advice. It is important to only invest what you can afford to lose and to seek independent financial advice if you have any doubts. For further information, we suggest referring to the terms and conditions as well as the help and support pages provided by the issuer or advertiser. MetaversePost is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice.

About The Author

Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.

More articles
Alisa Davidson
Alisa Davidson

Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.

Hot Stories
Join Our Newsletter.
Latest News

From Ripple to The Big Green DAO: How Cryptocurrency Projects Contribute to Charity

Let's explore initiatives harnessing the potential of digital currencies for charitable causes.

Know More

AlphaFold 3, Med-Gemini, and others: The Way AI Transforms Healthcare in 2024

AI manifests in various ways in healthcare, from uncovering new genetic correlations to empowering robotic surgical systems ...

Know More
Read More
Read more
exSat Debuts Bitcoin Staking, Offering Users New Financial Opportunities
News Report Technology
exSat Debuts Bitcoin Staking, Offering Users New Financial Opportunities
November 5, 2024
Fetch.ai Partners With Alibaba Cloud, Welcoming It As New Cloud Provider
News Report Technology
Fetch.ai Partners With Alibaba Cloud, Welcoming It As New Cloud Provider
November 5, 2024
How DOGS Token Turned A Simple Age Verification System Into A Multi-Million Dollar Charitable Movement
Interview Business Lifestyle Markets Technology
How DOGS Token Turned A Simple Age Verification System Into A Multi-Million Dollar Charitable Movement
November 5, 2024
Io.net Partners With YOM To Transform Cloud Gaming Through Decentralized Infrastructure
News Report Technology
Io.net Partners With YOM To Transform Cloud Gaming Through Decentralized Infrastructure
November 5, 2024