Matrixport Signals Potential Bitcoin Breakout As Volatility Drops And ETF Inflows Remain Resilient
In Brief
Matrixport’s latest analysis suggests Bitcoin may be poised for a breakout following low volatility and strong ETF inflows, though any rally could face resistance near $116K without increased capital inflows.
Provider of crypto-financial services, Matrixport released an updated market analysis indicating that Bitcoin has remained within a relatively narrow trading range in recent months, despite persistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and steady acquisition by treasury-focused entities.
The asset’s volatility profile appears to have undergone a structural change, with realized volatility reaching multi-year lows and short-term implied volatility registering in the low 30s. This decline in volatility may reflect market maturation and could make the asset more attractive to institutional participants previously constrained by risk guidelines. There are indications that this subdued trading environment could be approaching a shift, as Bitcoin begins to move above key trendline resistance levels, suggesting the potential for a breakout.
ETF inflows have demonstrated unexpected resilience, with nearly $14 billion entering Bitcoin ETFs since April—exceeding what the spot market performance would typically imply by approximately $4 billion. This suggests that a significant portion of the demand is non-speculative in nature, pointing to a shift toward long-term holding strategies.
However, broader capital efficiency in the cryptocurrency market appears to be in decline. Inflows for 2025 are currently on track to fall below the 2024 peak of $377 billion, with projections indicating an annualized total closer to $291 billion. As a result, driving further growth in Bitcoin’s market capitalization now demands more substantial capital input, with each invested dollar requiring a multiplier effect of roughly 2.0x to 2.6x to sustain price momentum.
Meanwhile, capital markets have a vested interest in sustaining positive sentiment, particularly with more than $100 billion in crypto-related initial public offerings (IPOs) on the horizon. Some companies, such as Circle, have already completed IPOs and reported performance exceeding expectations. Crypto-related equities are increasingly seen as an accessible means for institutions to gain exposure to digital assets, bolstered by themes of operational leverage and technological development.
Bitcoin’s Seasonal Strength In July Faces Key Test Amid Low Flows And Resistance Near $116K
Historically, July has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, posting positive returns in 7 of the past 10 years and averaging a gain of 9.1%. In contrast, August and September tend to underperform due to reduced trading activity and increased macroeconomic uncertainty.
Should Bitcoin follow this seasonal trend, short-term price strength may continue before a return to consolidation. This outlook is supported by improving macroeconomic indicators, favorable equity earnings reports, and generally positive post–Independence Day sentiment in US financial markets. However, unless there is a notable increase in net capital flows—particularly from retail investors or new sources of liquidity—any near-term rally may encounter resistance near the $116,000 level, though a move as high as $120,000 remains within range.
Additional support for this potential shift comes from Matrixport’s Greed & Fear Index, where the smoothed moving average is showing signs of reversing upward toward the “Greed” territory, which has historically coincided with rising price action. As a result, the prevailing assumption of continued quiet market conditions may be tested if historical July performance patterns persist.
Bitcoin Slips Below $109K, Spot ETF Inflows Hit $602M
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,694, reflecting a 0.69% decrease over the previous 24-hour period. The asset reached an intraday high of $110,498 and a low of $108,674. Its current market capitalization is estimated at $2.16 trillion, representing a 0.7% decline on the day. The broader cryptocurrency market has also experienced a downturn, with total market capitalization standing at $3.34 trillion—down by 1.32% within the same time frame. Over the past 24 hours, total trading volume across the cryptocurrency market has decreased by 15.99%, reaching $109.85 billion, based on figures from CoinMarketCap.
Data from SoSoValue indicates that yesterday, net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $602 million. At the time of measurement, the aggregate net asset value of these ETFs amounted to $137.597 billion. This places the ETF net asset ratio—defined as the market value of spot ETFs relative to the overall market capitalization of Bitcoin—at 6.29%. Cumulatively, historical net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $49.642 billion.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
