Bitcoin in 2025: How High Can the Bull Market Take It?
In Brief
Bitcoin’s 150% rally in 2024, driven by regulatory optimism, improved macro environment, and investor enthusiasm, is expected to continue in 2025, reaching $200,000- $250,000.
Bitcoin experienced a 150% rally in 2024, positioning itself as one of the top market performers in the year. This can be attributed to three bullish factors – regulatory optimism, an improved macro environment, and mounting investor enthusiasm.
Looking ahead, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is expected to extend its bullish trend in 2025, with analysts projecting it may reach a price range of between $200,000 and $250,000.
BTC on a Bullish Trajectory
Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 mark in early December following the announcement that the crypto-friendly Paul Atkins would be nominated as the next SEC Chair under Trump’s administration.
Bitcoin might hit $250,000 in 2025, according to Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors. The Standard Chartered also expects the price to touch $200,000 in 2025.
As central banks ease monetary policy, investors’ desire for risky assets usually grows. This is because more money is being printed, and more people are liquidating their assets.
The widespread risk-on mentality suggests that Bitcoin may continue to rise in value in 2025 when the world’s leading central banks are predicted to keep slashing interest rates.
Fertile Regulatory Ground
Bitcoin’s remarkable rally in 2024 saw its price soar beyond $100,000 by February. Key catalysts included the SEC’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, setting the stage for the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event in April.
The demand for bitcoin could increase, according to Adrian Fritz, head of research at 21Shares, if the central bank relaxes its stance in 2025 and more money flows into digital assets.
In his view, economic and financial volatility might cause investors to seek out more conventional assets, which can lead to a “sell-off.”
Bitcoin traded between $52,000 and $72,000 until November, when Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election catalyzed further gains.
Investor confidence received a boost from Trump’s declaration to position the US as the global leader in cryptocurrency, pledging policies aimed at making America the “crypto capital of the world.”
10% Chance of Bitcoin Hitting $1 Million
The creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the US government is the most important thing that needs to happen for Bitcoin to hit the $1 million mark.
This is coming from Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management. He remains cautious, estimating less than a 10% likelihood of such initiatives gaining traction by 2025.
In Park’s opinion, the odds of this happening in 2025 are only around 10%. Why this particular probability? He gives the same odds as the possibility of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve being built in the US.
According to Park on X (formerly Twitter), the possibility of a government Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025 is lower than ten percent. That’s the only way Bitcoin can reach $1 million or more when it does happen.
Luckily for BTC holders, Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a measure that would require the US Treasury to buy 1B BTC over five years, laying the framework for such an endeavor. There has been heated discussion in the political and financial spheres over this ambitious plan.
Bearish Projections
The bearish camp warns against being too bullish and points to macroeconomic factors such as possible regulatory crackdowns and tighter monetary policy, which can pull BTC down.
Trusted market expert Peter L. Brandt has issued a warning, stating that his technical research may point to a plunge below $78,000. From there, the price may either keep falling or increase sharply.
While there are no strong signs of another “crypto winter” coming, there were also none that suggested it would happen in 2022.
When FTX, a massive money laundering scheme, went down, and people tried to hide the links between stolen funds and donations to high-profile politicians, it destroyed all the groundwork for BTC to continue its rally. However, black swans are unpredictable, so there’s always the possibility that a different liquidity crisis in TradFi could hinder people from using Bitcoin.
Heading for a Short-term Dip?
Before hitting an all-time high of $109,000 on Jan 20, Bitcoin had achieved $108,000 in mid-December, only to fall sharply to $94,000. Analysts attribute this to profit-taking and a broader shift to risk-off sentiment, paralleling a decline in global stock markets over the past two weeks.
Crypto went through massive turmoil in 2021 and 2022, known as the “crypto winter.” During that time, the price of BTC dropped below $20K, a 75% drop in a year.
Even though flying from $20K to above $100K is astronomical, John Plassard, senior financial expert at Mirabaud Group, says that bitcoin’s past is full of very high and very low points. He states that while there’s no denying the “increased legitimacy” of Bitcoin, the price has gone through sharp drops after periods of rapid growth, which suggests that investors should be careful.
Cryptocurrencies are notoriously unpredictable, with price swings depending on market mood and risk appetite, regulatory updates, technology upgrades, and economic developments, among other things.
That’s why experts like Adrian Fritz believe that a slight correction in the short term is likely, and it’ll be a “vital” factor in rebalancing the market and stabilizing BTC’s movement.
The 2025 Ceiling for Bitcoin
Dovile Silenskyte, Director of Digital Assets Research at WisdomTree, advises investors to brace for Bitcoin’s inherent volatility. She states that corrections and significant value declines are inevitable, regardless of market conditions. While volatility can fuel substantial gains, it also carries the risk of major losses.
Technically, Bitcoin’s immediate support lies near $90,000. A break below this could push the price toward the next key level of $73,000.
But, with so much wind going in the crypto market’s direction, it’s not insane to suggest that we’ll see BTC reaching close, or even past, the $200K mark.
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Disclaimer
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About The Author
Victoria is a writer on a variety of technology topics including Web3.0, AI and cryptocurrencies. Her extensive experience allows her to write insightful articles for the wider audience.
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Victoria is a writer on a variety of technology topics including Web3.0, AI and cryptocurrencies. Her extensive experience allows her to write insightful articles for the wider audience.
