10x Research: Ethereum Recovery Faces Pressure Amid Persistent Structural Weakness, Turning Point Possible
In Brief
10x Research highlights Ethereum’s limited recovery amid structural weaknesses, warning that the cryptocurrency may be approaching a critical turning point.
10x Research, a digital asset analysis firm serving wealth managers and cryptocurrency service providers, has released a report assessing current conditions in the crypto market, with a particular focus on Ethereum. The analysis indicates that Ethereum has delivered limited price appreciation over the past five years, remaining near the $2,000 level first reached during the previous market cycle.
The firm noted that its outlook has remained cautious since November, citing subdued on-chain activity that has constrained demand and reduced value accrual for ETH holders.
Despite this prolonged stagnation, Ethereum’s recent price decline of approximately 57% from its August 2025 peak has led analysts to view the asset as relatively undervalued, especially when compared to Bitcoin, which has fallen by roughly 42% over the same period. The report highlights continued accumulation trends even in the face of significant losses, including an estimated $8 billion drawdown across Ethereum-focused treasury vehicles.
Adding to the cautiously constructive picture, issuance of USDT on the Ethereum network has recently surpassed that on Tron, renewing expectations that Ethereum could benefit from the broader expansion of stablecoins and establish a central role in an increasingly on-chain financial infrastructure.
April Traditionally Strong For Ethereum, But Analysts Highlight Elevated Market Risks
At the time of reporting, ETH was trading at $2,124.13, reflecting a daily increase of over 4%. The broader cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at approximately $2.36 trillion, with total trading volume rising sharply over the previous 24-hour period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Ethereum has not recorded a positive monthly close since August 2025, extending a period of underperformance for the cryptocurrency. Historically, April has been a relatively strong month for ETH, with average returns around 18% and median returns exceeding 9%. However, current market conditions suggest that the approach into April carries elevated risk.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, speculative activity is currently playing a dominant role in Ethereum markets. Open interest in derivatives has reached approximately 6.4 million ETH, approaching the previous peak of 7.8 million ETH recorded in mid-2025, with roughly 36% of that activity concentrated on Binance. The spot-to-futures volume ratio has meanwhile declined to historically low levels, indicating that leveraged speculation — rather than organic spot demand — is the primary driver of price movements, a dynamic that increases the risk of sharp volatility through fast position unwinds or liquidations.
That speculative tilt is further reflected in capital flow divergence between the two largest crypto assets. While Bitcoin has attracted approximately $1.3 billion in inflows through exchange-traded funds, Ethereum has experienced sustained outflows over the past week, underscoring a meaningful gap in institutional demand.
In the options market, traders appear to be pricing in limited near-term upside. Analytics platform Bit notes that volatility has continued to compress despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, prompting a noticeable shift toward selling upside call options on Ethereum — a positioning that reflects broad market expectations that a sustained short-term rally remains unlikely.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
