QCP Highlights Volatility At Key $100K Level, Recovery Hinges On Stabilizing ETF Flows
In Brief
Bitcoin fell to the $100K support level amid a stronger dollar, Federal Reserve uncertainty, and ETF outflows, with analysts noting sentiment may recover if flows stabilize and no new macro shocks occur.
Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Capital released a recent market report, highlighting that Bitcoin led a global risk-off movement, dropping to test the $100,000 support level.
The decline was influenced by a stronger US dollar and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, which dampened risk appetite across financial markets. This pressure was reflected in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw approximately $1.3 billion in net outflows over four consecutive sessions, reversing one of the year’s strongest supportive trends.
The weakening spot demand coincided with forced deleveraging, including over $1 billion in long liquidations at intraday lows, briefly pushing Bitcoin below key support before buyers intervened. Options market positioning added to volatility, as dealers with net short gamma around $100,000 strikes increased hedging activity. The $100,000 level now serves as a critical psychological barrier, and any stabilization in ETF flows could quickly improve sentiment, provided no new macroeconomic shocks arise.
US Economy Shows Moderate Growth Despite Government Shutdown, Supporting Positive Macro Outlook
The broader macro environment remains constructive but is clouded by the ongoing US government shutdown. With official October payroll data delayed, market participants rely on private-sector indicators to assess momentum. Recent revisions showed Q2 GDP at 3.8% and a slowdown in payroll growth to roughly 29,000 per month, reflecting strong productivity. The Q3 GDPNow estimate of 4.0% SAAR, supported by steady ISM and consumption data, suggests the economy continues to expand at a moderate pace.
Policy direction remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut in October, despite some dissents, was paired with cautious guidance, tempering expectations of another cut in December. Markets currently assign roughly 60–65% odds to a follow-up move, but prolonged uncertainty may lead policymakers to pause, keeping the dollar strong and credit conditions tight. A sustained Bitcoin rally will likely depend on reversing ETF outflows and renewed confidence in broader risk assets.
At present, Bitcoin is trading at $102,668, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.36% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of $104,670 and a low of $99,008. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.4 trillion, down 1.14% over the same period. Meanwhile, the 24-hour trading volume across the cryptocurrency market has reached $281.7 billion, representing a 22.31% increase.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
