OpenAI May Already Reach AGI, But Will Try to Downplay Progress Due to Force Stop
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Rumors have been circulating, ignited by a cryptic tweet suggesting that “AGI has been achieved internally,” with a prediction that “2025 is the year when AGI will appear.” The intrigue deepens as the AI community attempts to decipher the cryptic messages and events surrounding OpenAI.
In case you missed the recent developments, here’s a recap:
- An anonymous insider, who has accurately predicted several OpenAI developments, tweeted about reaching a technological level that could be considered AGI, at least by some definitions.
- Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, made a surprising appearance on Reddit after a five-year absence, where discussions revolved around the deletion of the insider’s Twitter account.
- Around the same time, both Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s Chief Scientist, posted enigmatic messages on Twitter, raising eyebrows within the community.
As the speculation swirls, a closer look reveals some plausible insights:
OpenAI’s Ambitious Goal
OpenAI has openly stated that one of its internal teams, led by Ilya Sutskever, aims to tackle the complex challenge of aligning human and AI intentions over the next four years. The strategy involves creating an autonomous AI researcher, capable of replacing a human team member and completing assigned tasks. Progress in this area centres on enhancing Large Language Models (LLMs) in terms of planning, reasoning, and mathematical abilities.
Long Videos on the Horizon
An OpenAI employee on Twitter hinted at the possibility of models capable of generating extended videos (beyond the current short snippets) by 2025. This aligns with rumours suggesting that OpenAI is training a multimodal model capable of producing not only text but also images and videos. Sam Altman’s emphasis on long-term planning could imply that GPT-5, with this extended functionality, may be on the horizon for 2025.
A Deadline for Progress
The 2025 timeline aligns with the two-year mark from the launch of the team mentioned in point 1. It could signify a deadline for the team to produce an autonomous researcher prototype, as an additional year and a half would be needed to validate the technology and present it to the scientific community. Missing this timeline could risk delays.
OpenAI employs benchmarks to gauge progress in AI development. These benchmarks challenge AI systems to prove theorems or derive conclusions from axioms. Any improvements in these metrics could indicate advancements toward an autonomous explorer.
It appears that the new model or enhancement of GPT-4 has achieved unexpected progress in a benchmark or part of one. While it falls short of AGI, it demonstrates the model’s ability to generate new scientific knowledge, a milestone that may have been anticipated to arrive much later in development.
The AGI Speculation
As models become more technologically advanced, there is a growing tendency to label them as AGI, even if they fall short of full artificial general intelligence.
OpenAI may be inclined to downplay current results and set a high bar for what qualifies as AGI to manage attention and expectations, potentially avoiding disruptions to ongoing research.
In conclusion, these insights are speculative and unconfirmed. They offer a perspective on the situation based on the available information and faith in OpenAI’s mission. The mysterious developments continue to fuel curiosity and anticipation within the AI community, but definitive answers remain elusive.
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