K33 Research: Bitcoin’s Price-Fundamental Disconnect In 2025 May Set The Stage For 2026 Recovery
In Brief
K33 Research says BTC underperformed in 2025 despite stronger fundamentals and growing institutional adoption, viewing the price–fundamental disconnect and ownership redistribution as setting the stage for a potential recovery in 2026.
K33 Research, the research division of digital asset firm K33, has published a review of market developments over the past year. The report characterizes 2025 as a paradoxical period for Bitcoin, noting that while fundamentals have strengthened, BTC has underperformed relative to other major asset classes. The divergence between price and fundamentals is seen as creating potential opportunities, with 2026 expected to provide conditions conducive to a BTC recovery.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 was unusually detached from market headlines, largely due to a large selling by early investors and temporary imbalances from isolated bubbles and leverage events. This underperformance occurred even as major institutional and governmental developments took place, including the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the world’s largest economy and broader institutional access to the market. The report suggests that such a disconnect between prices and fundamentals often signals opportunity.
K33 Research highlights that market pessimism has grown, partly influenced by historical four-year cycles, but cautions against overreliance on cyclical patterns. Past cycles were shaped by factors such as interest rate hikes and unmet institutional expectations, whereas in 2025, many previous ambitions have been realized, including increased institutional participation and policy developments supportive of cryptocurrency adoption.
Looking ahead to 2026, analysts anticipate a more expansionary macroeconomic environment, including potential dovish monetary policy, which could favor scarce assets like Bitcoin. While historical fractal patterns suggest caution, the broader context of improved fundamentals and supportive conditions positions Bitcoin for potential upside in the coming year.
Crypto Sector Grows Amid Regulatory Shifts And Emerging Pains In Mainstream Adoption
The cryptocurrency sector has experienced growth over the past year. The US government has established its own bitcoin reserves, while state pension funds in Abu Dhabi and Luxembourg have allocated between one and three percent of their capital to bitcoin, and Harvard has made a similar allocation within its endowment. Traditional financial institutions are also increasingly embracing crypto, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America allowing up to four percent bitcoin in certain opportunistic portfolios, and JP Morgan permitting select clients to use cryptocurrency as loan collateral.
These developments have been facilitated by evolving regulatory frameworks. The eurozone has implemented comprehensive regulations, the US has enacted legislation governing stablecoins, and broader crypto legislation is expected in early 2026. Clearer rules have lowered barriers to entry for major financial institutions, transitioning a market once viewed as radical and unregulated into a recognized component of mainstream financial infrastructure.
Not All Early Adopters Embrace Bitcoin’s Integration Into Mainstream Finance
K33 Research notes that Bitcoin remains a scarce digital store of value that operates independently of governments, central banks, and intermediaries, a characteristic that initially attracted early adopters both as a technological alternative and, for some, as a form of protest against traditional financial systems. Today, Bitcoin continues to function in much the same way: it can be held in private wallets and transferred freely across the globe. However, the surrounding ecosystem has evolved significantly. Purchases now require identity verification, and trading will soon be possible through established banks, some of which were previously supported by state bailouts during financial crises.
This increased integration may help explain why many early holders have begun selling. Since January 2024, approximately 20% of Bitcoin UTXOs older than two years have been moved, reflecting both profit-taking after substantial gains and responses to Bitcoin’s evolving market structure. Despite this selling, the redistribution of ownership has strengthened the market. The selling pressure from early large holders has been absorbed, and Bitcoin is now distributed across more participants, with many establishing new entry prices, reducing the likelihood of further concentrated sell-offs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price relative to global equity indices has declined to levels not seen since prior to the US presidential election, an event that marked the start of a new phase in the sector’s development.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
