Bitfinex Projects Bitcoin Could Approach $126K In 2026 Amid Easing Policy, Rising Liquidity, And Growing Adoption
In Brief
Bitfinex’s year-end report highlights a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics in 2025 and projects that 2026 could bring renewed gains, driven by liquidity, institutional adoption, and supportive macroeconomic trends.
Bitfinex has released its year-end cryptocurrency market report, reviewing the key factors that shaped market performance in 2025 and providing projections for 2026.
Analysts noted that 2025 marked a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics, moving away from its traditional four-year, halving-driven cycle as annual BTC issuance fell below 1%. This diminished the impact of supply shocks, making price movements increasingly influenced by demand-side factors and broader macroeconomic conditions rather than scarcity alone.
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin avoided the deep drawdowns typical of prior cycles, supported by structural inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporates, and sovereign-linked entities, which absorbed multiples of annual mined supply and compressed volatility. The market demonstrated a growing influence of long-term institutional capital, while retail-driven speculative flows became less dominant. Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge also strengthened, supported by persistent fiscal deficits, rate cuts amid above-target inflation, and rising sovereign debt risks, with gold leading broader hedge-related gains.
Bitcoin Outlook 2026: Liquidity, Institutional Adoption, And Macro Trends Set Stage For Potential Market Gains
Looking ahead to 2026, liquidity is expected to play an increasingly central role in Bitcoin performance. Moderate Treasury issuance, tapering quantitative tightening, and easing fiscal programs are projected to create a more supportive liquidity environment. Institutional adoption continues to deepen, with cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) serving as the primary access point for digital assets; analysts forecast ETP assets under management to exceed $400 billion by the end of 2026, reinforcing Bitcoin’s transition toward a mature, macro-sensitive asset with longer, less volatile cycles.
The US economy is entering 2026 following a period of post-pandemic adjustment, with growth moderating, inflation easing but remaining sticky, and the labor market softening. Wage growth slowed, unemployment drifted into the mid-4 percent range, and hiring moderated. Inflation trends were uneven, with goods cooling while services and shelter sustained core inflation above the Federal reserve’s 2% target. Monetary policy adjusted cautiously in 2025, with the Federal Reserve initiating three quarter-point rate cuts by December and ending its balance-sheet runoff, while technical reserve purchases aimed to stabilize money markets. Analysts anticipate further accommodation in 2026, with two to three additional rate cuts possible.
Financial markets largely embraced the easing environment, with US equities reaching record highs, short-term Treasury yields declining, and yield curves modestly steepening. Key risks include potential inflation surprises, economic slowdowns in China and Asia, or trade-policy disruptions. Elevated tariffs are expected to continue into 2026, adding uncertainty for inflation, corporate margins, and global growth.
Bitfinex projects that Bitcoin could revisit its all-time high of $126,110 in 2026, supported by looser monetary policy, increasing liquidity, and sustained adoption. The report emphasizes that while 2025 was a stress test of liquidity, market narratives, and capital allocation, the conditions for selective growth and renewed upward potential remain in place as the market transitions toward maturity.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
