Glassnode Flags $85K–$85.5K Bitcoin Sell Wall As ETF Inflows Cool
Glassnode‘s latest weekly report describes Bitcoin as being in the early stages of an uptrend that has yet to attract broad market participation, with on-chain support intact but momentum indicators showing signs of strain. The clearest shift in demand has come from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After recording net inflows of approximately $1 billion on each of September 21 and 22 — the strongest two-day stretch in almost a year — inflows have declined on every subsequent trading day, shrinking to just $24 million by September 28.
This cooling of institutional demand coincides with a formidable barrier overhead. On Binance’s spot order book, a dense concentration of sell orders has accumulated between $85,000 and $85,500, tripling in size since it first appeared on September 24. The report identifies this wall as the most critical near-term level: price has pushed into its lower boundary repeatedly without breaking through, and a sustained move above $85,500 would clear the largest visible resistance and, together with a rebound in ETF inflows and rising volume, confirm that the uptrend is broadening.
Below the current price, the first key support is the True Market Mean — Glassnode’s estimate of the average acquisition price of active investors — at $77,200. A daily close below that level would end the current stretch of strength and signal a weakening trend. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits lower at $73,300, leaving recent buyers roughly 13% in profit.
The rally also lacks volume confirmation. Total daily trading volume across spot exchanges and US spot ETFs averages approximately $6.4 billion, near the bottom of the range observed since the ETFs launched, which the report characterizes as evidence that the advance remains speculative rather than broadly supported.
Selling pressure, while still light relative to past cycle tops, is changing hands. Long-term holders — wallets holding coins for more than 155 days — nearly doubled their realized profits in the week to September 29, with their share of total realized gains rising from 34% to 55%. Should profit-taking accelerate toward levels seen at the 2024 and 2025 peaks, it would indicate holders are actively distributing into strength.
Altcoins Advance Without Froth as Bitcoin’s Edge Over Stocks Narrows
Bitcoin has recently outperformed traditional markets, beating the S&P 500 in more than half of the last 30 trading sessions — a ratio that turned positive on September 24 for the first time since mid-May. However, that edge narrowed this week: between September 22 and 29, Bitcoin fell 2.9% against the index’s 1.2%, and the cryptocurrency declined more sharply on the S&P 500’s down days.
Altcoins, meanwhile, have outpaced Bitcoin over the past month, with most of the top 500 tokens posting larger 30-day gains — but that advance stalled this week, with only 6% of altcoins trading at 30-day highs, down from 49% on September 22. Notably, the move higher has occurred without a buildup of speculative excess. Only 19% of altcoins currently pay perpetual futures funding above the neutral rate of 0.01%, far below the readings recorded at every previous altcoin top, and open interest has risen in dollar terms but fallen when measured in coins, indicating that traders have not added leveraged positions.
The rally has nonetheless lifted altcoin holders out of deep losses: median supply in profit across altcoins has climbed from 3% in mid-August to 23%, the sharpest improvement in over a year, though the majority of holders remain underwater. Glassnode concludes that the absence of new leverage limits the risk of a forced unwind, leaving the market’s near-term direction hinging on whether buyers can absorb the overhead supply and whether institutional demand returns.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
