Bitcoin Rally Loses Steam, Bitfinex Warns Of Volatility Shock Near $82K
In Brief
Bitcoin trades in a tight range after reclaiming key resistance levels, with Bitfinex warning that rising rates, ETF-driven demand and derivatives volatility may trigger sharp moves.
Bitfinex released its latest weekly analysis of the cryptocurrency market, indicating that Bitcoin has remained within a narrow trading range since the weekend after reclaiming two major resistance levels. The asset moved back above the True Market Mean at $79,200 and the Short-Term Holder cost basis at $79,500 before climbing to more than $82,000 on 10 May. Analysts noted that buying activity expected around the 15 May STRC ex-dividend record date may have arrived earlier than anticipated. However, the market’s inability to sustain momentum after breaking above resistance has raised concerns about the possibility of a short-term pullback.
According to the report, the True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder cost basis serve as dynamic support and resistance levels because they reflect the average entry prices of active market participants. Bitcoin’s repeated testing of these zones without a decisive breakout, despite continued demand from Exchange Traded Funds and lower levels of miner selling, has left the market in what analysts describe as a neutral position. The report also highlighted a slowdown in purchases from corporate treasury buyers, a group that had previously played a significant role in supporting upward price movement. Institutional demand is now increasingly concentrated in ETF inflows, marking a notable shift in market behaviour.
The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains restrictive. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.42 percent earlier this week, reducing expectations for interest rate cuts before the second half of 2026. At the same time, the Dollar Index remained steady at 97.88 while the S&P 500 advanced 0.84 percent to 7,398.93, signalling that investor appetite for risk assets remains intact despite higher borrowing costs. Rising energy prices through April have also added to concerns that inflationary pressures are building again.
Bitcoin Faces Volatility Test As Rising Rates And Derivatives Positioning Shape Market Outlook
Bitfinex stated that elevated interest rates continue to limit gains in non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. While the cryptocurrency has maintained a positive correlation with equities, analysts believe the recent recovery is more closely linked to broader risk sentiment than to renewed demand for Bitcoin as a monetary hedge. In derivatives markets, call options now account for nearly 57 percent of open interest, with the largest concentration positioned around the $80,000 strike for late May. Implied volatility has risen sharply to around 45 percent, and analysts pointed to a substantial short gamma position near $82,000, a factor that could amplify both upward and downward price swings.
On-chain indicators have shown signs of improvement, with realised profit and loss turning positive for the first time since February. Long-term holders have started taking moderate profits, though realised daily losses remain elevated at approximately $479 million, well above the $200 million level associated with more stable market conditions. Analysts concluded that Bitcoin remains positioned for a significant move, with the current trading range between $79,100 and $85,200 likely to determine whether ETF demand alone can support prices or if broader institutional participation will be required for further gains.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
