The Calm Before The Solana Storm: What Charts, Whales, And On-Chain Signals Are Saying Now
In Brief
Solana has demonstrated strong performance, driven by increasing adoption, institutional interest, and key partnerships, while facing potential volatility due to the $200M token unlock.
Solana has shown surprising strength while Bitcoin wobbled, defying fears around its upcoming token unlocks. With $1.35 billion worth set to be released in March 2025, many expected a drop to $80. Instead, growing development and adoption suggest that “the bottom is likely already in,” shaking off panic from bigger traders.
Solana’s Surge Sets It Apart From Bitcoin and Ethereum
Among major cryptocurrencies, Solana has emerged as a standout, delivering some of the strongest gains in the large-cap space. Bloomberg data underscores its rapid rise, driven by increased adoption and investor optimism.
The Crypto Professors on X observed that Solana tends to follow “well-defined cycles,” marked by bursts in both price and network activity. While Ethereum and Bitcoin show steadier growth, Solana’s evolving market behavior could cement its position as a long-term force in the crypto world.
$200M Token Unlock Puts Solana to the Test
Solana is approaching a major milestone with its largest token unlock until 2028—worth roughly $200 million—set to enter the market. Coming amid broader crypto weakness, this event could act as a “market stress test” for SOL. Historically, such unlocks bring short-term pressure.
Four wallets from April 2021 will release nearly $202 million in tokens, according to Arkham. Whether this supply is sold or restaked will be critical in determining if Solana holds steady or faces renewed volatility.
Solana Enters Critical Distribution Phase
Solana’s latest price movements hint at a deeper shift, as one Sri_Phoenix points to a clear “distribution phase” taking shape.
Each rebound is weakening, and resistance remains firm, signaling intense sell pressure. Combined with the $200M unlock, the market is entering a high-stakes moment.
According to chart analysis, Solana could be in Phase D—where upward momentum stalls and liquidity fades. If buyers can’t reclaim key levels soon, the asset may slide into Phase E, confirming a breakdown and marking the final leg of this distribution cycle.
Solaxy (SOLX) Presale Gaining Momentum
With Solana gaining traction again, attention is turning to projects offering more than just hype. Traders are on the lookout for real solutions—not another meme coin.
Enter Solaxy (SOLX), a utility-focused token in presale that’s already raised over $30.4 million, even in a cautious market—a sign of growing trust and serious interest.
Designed as a Layer 2 for Solana, Solaxy aims to ease network congestion, especially during high-volume periods. Like an “off-ramp” during rush hour, it processes transactions off-chain, then finalizes them on-chain, keeping activity seamless. This upgrade boosts speed and efficiency for gaming, trading, and NFT launches. Beyond performance,
Solaxy also empowers developers by offering a suite of ready-to-use tools. With simplified integrations and faster deployment, it’s poised to accelerate the creation of DeFi platforms, NFT marketplaces, and dApps on the Solana network. The rising demand for utility suggests Solaxy could play a key role in the next growth phase.
Solana’s Bollinger Bands Tighten as On-Chain Activity Hints at Breakout
Solana is hovering between $146 and $148, with Bollinger Bands tightening—often a precursor to major price movement. While price action appears subdued, on-chain indicators are telling a different story. One key metric, “hot capital”—coins recently moved or reactivated—has doubled in just one week, soaring by $4.72 billion to reach $9.46 billion by April 28.
That’s the highest level since March 12 and the biggest seven-day increase since January. This surge suggests traders are either redeploying or gearing up to reenter the market. At the same time, Solana now ranks second in blockchain fee generation, even surpassing Ethereum, signaling growing user demand.
Despite low volatility and a narrow trading range, these signs of increasing network activity and liquidity pressure suggest that “a breakout could be brewing.” If momentum continues to build, Solana may be gearing up for a significant move in the days ahead.
Key Partnerships & Institutional Interest
Solana’s growth is supported by key partnerships that could help sustain its momentum. Solana Pay, now integrated with Mastercard for stablecoin payments, brings blockchain closer to mainstream retail applications, potentially boosting user adoption and transaction volume.
Additionally, institutional interest continues to rise, with major asset manager VanEck expressing hopes for a Solana ETF approval during the Token2049 event—though unconfirmed, this signals growing confidence in SOL as a long-term asset.
Technically, Solana is holding above the $130 support zone, with $181.20 as the next resistance level, offering a potential 31.27% upside. The Stochastic RSI shows buying momentum is still present, but price action around $150 resistance and $144 support will be crucial in determining Solana’s next major move.
AI Boom and Whale Moves Boost Solana’s Sentiment
Solana’s recent bullish momentum goes beyond technical analysis—it’s driven by the growing narrative around its infrastructure, especially in the AI space.
While a $28.7 million whale movement wasn’t directly linked to AI, Solana’s increasing appeal among AI developers is evident.
Projects like Render (RNDR) and Fetch.ai (FET) saw price and volume boosts following whale activity, indicating that institutional attention on a major Layer 1 token like SOL can create ripple effects.
Traders focusing on AI-related altcoins should closely monitor Solana-driven momentum for potential opportunities.
What’s Next for Solana?
Solana’s future looks promising, with whale conviction, strong on-chain activity, and a bullish technical setup forming a solid foundation.
If SOL can break through the $154 mark with volume, a swift move to $163—and possibly even $200—could be on the horizon, driven by increasing network demand and macroeconomic trends.
However, Solana’s next move hinges on whether buyers can step in or if sellers will continue to apply pressure. The key support zone lies between $129-$143 and potentially $167-$171. But if that support breaks, SOL could fall below $100.
The $200M unlock and Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized exchanges add uncertainty, leaving it a waiting game to see if buyers can take control or if the market remains under pressure.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in cryptocurrency, zero-knowledge proofs, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
