Bitfinex: Bitcoin Compresses Above True Market Mean As Supply Cluster Anchors Price To Holder Cost Basis
According to the latest research released by Bitfinex, Bitcoin has entered September trading in a narrow three-percent band between $76,500 and $79,500, compressing just above the True Market Mean — the average cost basis of all active network participants, currently at $76,350. The five-day consolidation follows a hawkish Jackson Hole address by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and comes despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The resilience underscores the significance of the current price zone, where a substantial portion of supply is concentrated near investor breakeven levels. August delivered the cryptocurrency’s first positive August since 2021, closing up 24.9% from its monthly open of $62,922 — the largest such gain since November 2024. The week ending August 23 produced the largest weekly dollar expansion in Bitcoin’s history, with price surging 23.6% to add over $14,800.
Historical data since 2020 indicates that of the 17 weekly advances exceeding 15%, the asset was higher 30 days later in 14 instances, with a median return of 8.4%. Although September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, averaging a 2.95% decline since 2013, the analysis suggests any near-term pullback should remain limited as long as price sustains above former resistance near $68,000.
Institutional Flows and Options Positioning Point to a Cautious Pause
Institutional activity reveals a measured but shifting landscape. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, acquired 4,603 BTC for approximately $369.7 million between August 24 and 30 at an average price of $80,318 — its first purchase in ten weeks — bringing total holdings to 845,050 BTC. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a nine-session, $3.04 billion inflow streak interrupted by a $201.9 million redemption on August 28, followed by a $216.7 million recovery, before cooling with a $236.5 million outflow on September 1. Ether ETFs, by contrast, extended an uninterrupted 13-day inflow streak.
On-chain supply dynamics reinforce the importance of the current range. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has straddled 1.0 for nine consecutive sessions, with the current reading at 0.98, indicating that sellers are likely February and March buyers exiting near their cost basis. Approximately 880,000 BTC carry a cost basis within the tight $2,800 window where the market is currently trading, meaning each move through this zone flips a significant block of supply between profit and loss.
Options markets are pricing volatility near yearly lows, with implied volatility at 37.2 — in the 18th percentile of the past year’s closes. The September 11 expiry straddle, which encompasses the upcoming payrolls and PPI releases, is priced at $3,208, implying a 4.13% breakeven move.
The put-to-call open interest ratio for that expiry sits at 1.00, with downside protection clustered between $68,000 and $75,000 — levels that align with technical support zones. With Fed rate hike probabilities near 66%, the market appears positioned for a directional resolution following the September 4 payrolls report, while the True Market Mean near $76,350 serves as the pivot around which current price action is organizing.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
