Bitcoin’s Bottom Debate: Galaxy, NYDIG, And Standard Chartered Diverge, But Bitwise Says Upside Is The Real Question
In Brief
Three major firms diverge on Bitcoin’s exact bottom, but Bitwise’s Hougan argues long-term upside potential matters more than timing the low.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has published a market outlook examining one of the most debated questions among cryptocurrency investors: whether Bitcoin has already reached its cycle bottom. In the analysis, Hougan argues that while the topic has attracted significant attention, the more important consideration for long-term investors may be the asset’s future upside potential rather than the precise timing of a market low.
The article reviews recent research published by three major market participants—Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered—which each reached different conclusions regarding Bitcoin’s current position in the market cycle. Despite analyzing many of the same indicators, the firms offered varying assessments of whether the recent correction has fully run its course.
Galaxy Digital’s analysis examined Bitcoin’s historical market cycles and identified a range of indicators that have historically coincided with major market bottoms. These metrics included valuation measures, market sentiment, miner activity, trend indicators, and long-term moving averages. According to the report, only a portion of these signals currently align with previous cycle lows, leading Galaxy to conclude that Bitcoin may still face additional downside before establishing a definitive bottom.
NYDIG reached a more balanced conclusion after comparing the current market correction with previous Bitcoin drawdowns. The firm found that several indicators, including holder profitability and market valuation metrics, are approaching levels associated with past cycle lows. However, the report noted that the market has yet to exhibit the degree of capitulation typically observed at major bottoms. At the same time, NYDIG suggested that increasing institutional participation may be altering Bitcoin’s market structure, potentially resulting in a less severe correction than in previous cycles.
Standard Chartered offered the most optimistic outlook among the three institutions. The bank argued that Bitcoin likely established its low at approximately $59,000 and pointed to improving macroeconomic conditions as a supportive factor. Its analysis cited developments such as easing geopolitical tensions and reduced selling pressure from investors reallocating capital. Based on these factors, the bank maintained a positive outlook for Bitcoin through the remainder of the year.
Different Forecasts, Similar Conclusions
While the three reports differed in their short-term expectations, Hougan emphasized that they shared several important conclusions. All three analyses suggest that Bitcoin is closer to the end of its current downturn than the beginning, and each projects that the asset will eventually enter another growth cycle. Although estimates for a potential bottom vary, the broader consensus is that any remaining downside is limited relative to the longer-term opportunity.
Hougan argued that long-term investors may be placing too much emphasis on identifying the exact market bottom. Instead, he suggested that the more significant question is whether Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential remains intact. According to his assessment, the structural factors that have supported Bitcoin’s adoption—including rising government debt, ongoing concerns about inflation, increasing digitization of the global economy, broader access to digital assets, and growing institutional participation—remain in place.
While acknowledging risks such as regulatory uncertainty and technological challenges, Hougan concluded that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In his view, current market conditions appear more favorable than those seen during previous cryptocurrency downturns, reinforcing the case for continued long-term interest in the asset.
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About The Author
Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
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Alisa, a dedicated journalist at the MPost, specializes in crypto, AI, investments, and the expansive realm of Web3. With a keen eye for emerging trends and technologies, she delivers comprehensive coverage to inform and engage readers in the ever-evolving landscape of digital finance.
